| Indicator | Period | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | Q1 2025 | 6.9% | y/y |
| GDP Growth | Q2 2025 | 7.96% | y/y |
| GDP Growth | H1 2025 | 7.52% | Highest since 2011 |
| Inflation | May 2025 | 3.24% | YTD |
| Inflation | June 2025 | 3.57% | YTD high |
| Unemployment | Q1 2025 | 2.20% | Down from 2.22% |
| FDI Registered | Jan–May 2025 | $18.4B | +51% y/y |
| FDI Disbursed | Jan–May 2025 | $8.9B | |
| FDI Total | H1 2025 | $21.51B | +32.6% y/y |
Vietnam 2025: Momentum With Vigilance
GDP surged 7.96% in Q2 and 7.52% in H1—best first-half since 2011—powered by industry and services. Inflation is contained, unemployment remains low, and FDI inflows are robust amid global headwinds.
GDP Growth Q2 2025 (y/y)
7.96%
Above Q1
GDP Growth H1 2025
7.52%
Highest since 2011
Inflation (June 2025)
3.57%
Highest YTD
Unemployment (Q1 2025)
2.20%
From Q4 2024
FDI (H1 2025)
$21.51B
+32.6% y/y
Retail Sales (Q1 2025)
₫1,708T
+9.9% y/y
Executive Summary
Vietnam’s economy sustained robust momentum in 2025. GDP expanded 7.96% y/y in Q2 and 7.52% in H1 (best since 2011). Growth was anchored by services and manufacturing, while inflation remained within the 3–4.5% target band. Unemployment stayed historically low at 2.20%, and FDI inflows accelerated, signaling strong investor confidence despite external frictions from trade tensions and tariffs.
- Growth leadership: services, manufacturing, and export industries; banking earnings seen up 17% with ~15% credit growth.
- Risks: global trade tensions, tariff exposure, geopolitical uncertainty, and FDI overdependence concerns.
- Policy stance: diversify markets, support domestic demand, preserve macro stability, and use fiscal space if needed.
Key Economic Indicators 2025
GDP Growth Performance
Actual
Gov Target 8.3–8.5%
2025 GDP Growth Forecasts
International
Government target
Min forecast
0%
Indicator Table (Sortable)
Inflation Rate
Target: 3–4.5%
Inflation remains well-controlled within the 3–4.5% target range. June’s 3.57% is the highest YTD but consistent with a manageable trajectory. External cost pressures from trade tensions are a watch point.
Inflation Recent Prints & Forecasts
Actual
IMF 2025: 2.9%
ADB 2025: 4.0%
Labor Market Snapshot
Unemployment
Foreign Direct Investment
FDI inflows are robust, reflecting sustained foreign investor confidence. Registered capital surged while disbursements kept pace, and H1 totals surpassed $21B.
FDI Momentum
Registered (Jan–May)
Disbursed (Jan–May)
Total (H1)
Investor Takeaways
- Strength across diversified manufacturing and services clusters.
- Policy continuity and infrastructure investments support pipeline.
- Monitor sectoral concentration and supply-chain dependencies.
Policy note: Maintain macro buffers; prioritize quality FDI with technology transfer and value chain deepening.
Sectoral Analysis
Services
Primary growth engine with broad-based expansion across retail, logistics, tourism, and digital services.
Manufacturing
Recovery maintained with strong export orders; supply-chain realignment favors Vietnam’s cost-quality mix.
Export Industries
Remain the economic backbone; competitiveness intact despite tariff-related frictions.
Banking
Earnings projected +17% in 2025 on ~15% system-wide credit growth; watch asset quality under external stress.
Challenges and Risk Factors
- Global trade tensions and US tariff policies pressure export-oriented sectors.
- Geopolitical instability raises uncertainty and potential cost pass-through.
- Overreliance on FDI could amplify cyclicality and external shocks.
- Imperative: growth not at the cost of macro stability, public debt, or inflation.
Mitigation: diversify export markets, strengthen domestic demand, enhance resilience, and maintain fiscal space for counter-cyclical support.
Historical Comparison
Vietnam sustained high growth in 2024 (7.1%). Growth in 2025 may moderate versus ambitious targets due to external constraints, but fundamentals remain resilient.
Q1 GDP Growth 2020–2025 (y/y)
Q1 Growth
Trend
Economic Outlook and Projections
Near-term Prospects (2025)
Solid starting point in Q1 (6.9% y/y) with resilience expected despite uncertainty. Government’s 8.3–8.5% target is ambitious vs international forecasts, but domestic drivers provide ballast.
Key Supporting Factors
- Robust FDI inflows and investor confidence
- Low unemployment supporting consumption
- Controlled inflation sustaining purchasing power
- Export competitiveness and market diversification
- Parliamentary push to raise GDP growth to at least 8%
Policy Playbook
- Diversify export markets and deepen regional value chains.
- Strengthen domestic demand through targeted measures.
- Enhance resilience: buffers, liquidity backstops, prudent credit growth.
- Use fiscal space counter-cyclically if global shocks intensify.
Bottom line: Cautiously optimistic baseline with upside from supply-chain shifts; vigilance on external risks is warranted.
Conclusion
Vietnam’s 2025 performance highlights resilience and strong fundamentals: low unemployment, contained inflation, and buoyant FDI. While international projections are more conservative than the government’s 8%+ target, momentum and reform commitment provide a solid backdrop for sustained development.
Research Methodology
Scope, Sources, and Processing
- Scope: Macroeconomic indicators for Vietnam 2024–2025 with emphasis on Q1/Q2 2025 and H1 aggregates.
- Sources: IMF, ADB, World Bank, GSO Vietnam, Trading Economics, Vietnam Investment Review, and related portals.
- Processing: Extracted key values, normalized units, and constructed trend series for visualization. Forecasts aggregated for cross-comparison.
- Validation: Cross-checked ranges and narratives against cited sources; flagged assumptions where applicable.
Sources and Citations
| # | Source | URL | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate | Link | |
| 2 | International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile | Link | |
| 3 | World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates | Link | |
| 4 | General Statistics Office (Vietnam) | Link | |
| 5 | Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam | Link | |
| 6 | IMF - Vietnam and the IMF | Link | |
| 7 | FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators | Link | |
| 8 | GSO Vietnam - Data & Statistics | Link | |
| 9 | VietnamNet - Economic News | Link | |
| 10 | IMF - Article IV Mission Reports | Link | |
| 11 | Vietnam Briefing - Analysis | Link | |
| 12 | Vietnam Investment Review - FDI | Link | |
| 13 | Trading Economics - FDI | Link | |
| 14 | White & Case - Regional Outlook | Link | |
| 15 | Vietnam Economic Times | Link | |
| 16 | Asian Development Bank - Viet Nam | Link | |
| 17 | Ministry of Planning and Investment | Link |
Appendices
Data Dictionary
- GDP Growth: Real GDP y/y change, quarterly and half-year aggregate.
- Inflation: Headline CPI y/y.
- Unemployment: National unemployment rate.
- FDI: Registered and disbursed capital in USD; total H1 in USD.
Assumptions & Notes
- Q1 historical series reflects reported year-on-year expansions 2020–2025.
- Forecast comparison normalizes to calendar 2025 growth.